Keeping score: it's the economy, stupid! (and also security)

GDPs 1970-2007 - Argentina - Brazil - Chile - Colombia

Those surprised by the seemingly abrupt turn from Left to Right in Brazil, Argentina, Nicaragua, Ecuador (and seemingly soon in Venezuela) would be less after looking at the graphic above. It shows how politics reflect wild swings between growth and recession and even depression. Voters react to economics rather than politics or culture wars.

In the years after the return to democratic rule (after 1985) Argentina (red) exhibits the wildest swings, whereas Chile, Colombia and even Brazil show the benefits of governance agreements (Concordancia in Chile , Alternancia in Colombia, PT-MDB in Brazil) and sustained economic and social policies.

Those surprised by Bolsonaro's or Macri's victories should look at the economic growth indicators but also those related to security and crime, two scourges in Latin American societies that misguided Letf-wing policies exacerbated. Voters not only vote against inflation and unemployment, but against decent people living behind bars in their homes when criminals roam free.

The lessons of the last 15 years of Left-wing policies are being taken to heart by voters and later, by politicians, who are now taming their rhetoric from Left-Right controversies to Backward-Forward, Growth-No Growth, Security-Insecurity options.

Those who worry about Latin America's democratic degradation should look at the causes in the past 15 years rather than ideological preferences. 

If there is a constant, however, is political swings and instability, characteristic of societies where the rule of law is still a work in progress.